After the Wipeout

Today's huge by-election victories shows the next general election is all but decided. It's now time for us to focus on what will come next

As I wrote here last week there are good reasons to be concerned about the direction the Labour party has taken in recent months and the problems it could cause if and when they become the next government.

However, it’s also clear that it is now overwhelmingly more ‘when’ than ‘if’. 

Last night’s two by-election victories, one of which was on the second biggest swing ever recorded, shows once again that a generational Conservative wipeout at the next general election remains a very real possibility.

The extent to which this is the case has yet to be internalised at Westminster. 

This week commentators spent a long time talking about “Labour’s worst week” while clutching to a couple of polls suggesting a narrowing of Labour’s lead (while entirely ignoring polls showing the opposite). 

Yet once you look beyond the noise it’s clear that very little has changed over the past year and very little is likely to change over the coming months. 

So rather than focusing on a horse race that is now pretty much over, Westminster needs to start thinking about what will actually come next.