Nigel Farage Is Losing the Plot

The Gorton and Denton by-election could be the moment when the Reform UK leader's meteoric rise finally starts crashing down

The consensus in British politics is that Reform UK are on the rise, Labour is a spent force and Nigel Farage is almost certainly heading for Downing Street.

But is it actually true?

Next week could help bring an answer to that question when voters go to the polls in the Gorton and Denton by-election.

When this contest was first called, many commentators assumed that Reform would be a shoo-in to win it.

Yet as the weeks have passed, this assumption has come under increasing strain.

The Greens, initially considered a long-shot, are currently the bookies’ favourites, after a poll this week put them narrowly ahead in a three horse race with Reform and Labour.

And while support for Keir Starmer’s party does appear to have collapsed from its previous levels in the area, the party still believes they have a chance to narrowly cling on.

Such optimism cannot be so easily found inside Farage’s party.

Reform’s candidate, an oddball far-right former academic turned GB News presenter, is facing allegations of sexual harassment, while their “interim” campaign manager for the seat has been exposed as a holocaust-denying anti-semite who boasted that he would “never touch a Jewish woman”.

With their odds of winning the seat now drifting, a seat that just weeks ago looked a complete gimme for Farage’s party, looks at real risk of slipping from their fingers.

So how did it go so wrong for Reform, and is this the first real sign that Nigel Farage’s party is starting to lose the plot?