Operation Stop Matt Goodwin

An exclusive new Byline Times poll suggests that tactical anti-Reform voters are poised to defeat Nigel Farage's party in the Gorton and Denton by-election

Who is going to win the Gorton and Denton by-election? That’s the big question this week as voters prepare to go to the polls in the Manchester constituency.

So far we’ve had very little to go on, with both Labour and the Greens insisting that they are best placed to defeat Nigel Farage’s party.

However, this evening Byline Times published an exclusive poll, conducted by pollsters Opinium, which gives us a clear sign of where the contest is going.

The headline figures suggest it is too close to call, with the Green Party’s Hannah Spencer and Labour’s Angeliki Stogia both one point ahead of Reform’s Matt Goodwin.

However, the poll also asked voters a series of tactical questions designed to work out whether they would be prepared to switch their vote in order to defeat Reform.

These questions found that voters in the seat are significantly more likely to switch from Labour to the Greens than vice versa.

So does this mean the Greens will win or could Labour or Reform still clinch the contest given their greater resources, and more experienced get-out-the-vote operations?

Having dug into the data and spoken to those on the ground, here’s what I think is most likely to happen.