The slow death of this Conservative government is now underway
Sometimes politics is simpler than it appears, and right now the overwhelming signs are that this government is on its way out.
Betting markets now put Liz Truss as favourite to be Prime Minister after the next general election - narrowly ahead of Keir Starmer.
It come as a series of pundits also suggest that Liz Truss has been underestimated and that we could be heading for a revival of the Conservative party’s fortunes.
So are they right? Is the Conservative Party heading for a record fifth term in government under a new, surprisingly popular, Prime Minister?
I think that the punters and pundits have got this badly wrong for the following reasons: