What is really going to happen in the local elections

Ignore the spin and expectations management. Here is what the parties really expect to happen after polls close on Thursday

Voters go to the polls today in large parts of the country, in the first real test of support for Boris Johnson’s party since the start of Partygate.

There’s been a huge amount of spin over recent days as Conservative and Labour politicians and their media supporters seek to manage public expectations.

Most of this can be safely ignored. However, I have been speaking privately to councillors, MPs and campaigners in different parts of the country to get a sense of what is really happening on the ground. 

And while there is still a great deal of uncertainty, several clear themes have emerged.

Here is what I believe is actually going to happen when the results start to come in on Friday morning.