Voters go to the polls today in large parts of the country, in the first real test of support for Boris Johnson’s party since the start of Partygate.
There’s been a huge amount of spin over recent days as Conservative and Labour politicians and their media supporters seek to manage public expectations.
Most of this can be safely ignored. However, I have been speaking privately to councillors, MPs and campaigners in different parts of the country to get a sense of what is really happening on the ground.
And while there is still a great deal of uncertainty, several clear themes have emerged.
Here is what I believe is actually going to happen when the results start to come in on Friday morning.