What is really going to happen in the Tiverton and Wakefield by-elections

Ignore the spin and expectations management. Here is what the parties really expect to happen after polls close on Thursday

Voters are going to the polls in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton this morning in two by-elections that could decide the fate of the Prime Minister and signal whether we are heading for a new government after more than a decade of Conservative rule.

One contest is taking place in one of the safest Conservative seats in the country and the other is in a marginal ‘Red Wall’ seat taken from Labour in 2019.

However, both will tell us much about what we should expect over the coming months and years.

Over the past few days I’ve been talking to people in all three major parties about what they’re hearing on the ground.

And while always allowing for a certain amount of expectations management, a clear picture has emerged of what we should expect.

Here is what I believe is actually going to happen when the results come in on Friday morning.