The 2017 General Election is under-analysed. Almost airbrushed away. For Corbyn's supporters it was the "betrayal" of the Labour machine and right that denied him a small number of votes to win. For the Labour right it was a surprising recovery that made it impossible to remove Corbyn in a further coup.
The Conservatives were denied a majority and ended up in an unholy alliance with the DUP just to stay in power. Reducing Brexit to a nail biting minute by minute internal renegotiation of almost everything.
The 2019 election gave Johnson a majority with few more votes. The majority was a achieved via the fortunate business of Labour no longer having Scottish MPs, and the Conservatives morphing into a Brexit Party.
Key voters are that small group that make the small number seats flip. In a first past the post system, it means small moves can trigger massive changes. You can argue whether it's a good thing or a bad thing or a bad thing. The key point is it happens. That change was not a positive endorsement of the Conservatives but, with most elections, a vote against the alternatives.
If you have a General Election on one subject, Brexit, then the party that is least credible loses.
Since then, the new Brexit enthused Conservatives believe voters endorsed a right-wing platform. Starmer has removed the fear of Labour. It is now down to whether voters will vote against the Conservatives.
The poisonous role of the British press isn’t discussed. The election of a truly socialist government was (is) terrifying to the expatriate newspaper owners. They would have had to pay appropriate taxes on profits generated within this country. When the newspapers collectively told the public that Corbyn was an evil extreme left-winger who would sell the country to Russia, they obediently voted Conservative. The supreme irony is that the Conservatives are virtually owned by Russian interests. Also Starmer has, as you say, misunderstood the intent of the electorate.
Jun 5, 2023·edited Jun 5, 2023Liked by Adam Bienkov
The conventional wisdom that people get more conservative as they get older is so lazy. It really frustrates me when people thoughtlessly repeat it, often without any critical engagement or analysis whatsoever.
Generations which have become homeowners get more 'conservative', in some ways (not in others) when they become homeowners. Generations like mine, which are largely not becoming homeowners, are, very unsurprisingly, not becoming more conservative.
There are plenty of generations which did not become right wing as they got older. My grandparents were among that generation.
There are some people who believe this is true because it's reflected in the very specific demographics they surround themselves with. That's frustrating, but I understand how we probably all make some unthinking assumptions based on our own experiences.
But what I find really obnoxious is people who believe this because they associate being right wing with maturity, and being left wing, progressive, liberal or voting Labour with immaturity. That is absolute nonsense, very arrogant, and when it comes from politicians I believe it reflects a level of entitlement which I find pretty disgusting.
I cannot imagine believing that people who disagree with me are just inherently immature, and when they grow up, they'll come to agree with me. Delusional and hubristic, because the late 30s/early 40s generation will count in the general election, and we're very much not becoming more conservative with age. Between Brexit, housing, climate change, and the government's obsession with LGBT people, if anything, we may find ourselves getting more radical in our opposition to the government over the coming years. Or, rather, many of our general values, which may have been seen as fairly moderate in the past, are increasingly framed as "radical". Name calling everyone who disagrees with them as the lefty extremist mob may very well prompt as response along the lines of: "oh, ok, I thought I was in the centre, but if not caring where trans people go to the bathroom, thinking climate change is rather urgent, and wanting my rent to be fair is left wing, I guess the shoe fits. Better vote left then!"
The 2017 General Election is under-analysed. Almost airbrushed away. For Corbyn's supporters it was the "betrayal" of the Labour machine and right that denied him a small number of votes to win. For the Labour right it was a surprising recovery that made it impossible to remove Corbyn in a further coup.
The Conservatives were denied a majority and ended up in an unholy alliance with the DUP just to stay in power. Reducing Brexit to a nail biting minute by minute internal renegotiation of almost everything.
The 2019 election gave Johnson a majority with few more votes. The majority was a achieved via the fortunate business of Labour no longer having Scottish MPs, and the Conservatives morphing into a Brexit Party.
Key voters are that small group that make the small number seats flip. In a first past the post system, it means small moves can trigger massive changes. You can argue whether it's a good thing or a bad thing or a bad thing. The key point is it happens. That change was not a positive endorsement of the Conservatives but, with most elections, a vote against the alternatives.
If you have a General Election on one subject, Brexit, then the party that is least credible loses.
Since then, the new Brexit enthused Conservatives believe voters endorsed a right-wing platform. Starmer has removed the fear of Labour. It is now down to whether voters will vote against the Conservatives.
The poisonous role of the British press isn’t discussed. The election of a truly socialist government was (is) terrifying to the expatriate newspaper owners. They would have had to pay appropriate taxes on profits generated within this country. When the newspapers collectively told the public that Corbyn was an evil extreme left-winger who would sell the country to Russia, they obediently voted Conservative. The supreme irony is that the Conservatives are virtually owned by Russian interests. Also Starmer has, as you say, misunderstood the intent of the electorate.
The conventional wisdom that people get more conservative as they get older is so lazy. It really frustrates me when people thoughtlessly repeat it, often without any critical engagement or analysis whatsoever.
Generations which have become homeowners get more 'conservative', in some ways (not in others) when they become homeowners. Generations like mine, which are largely not becoming homeowners, are, very unsurprisingly, not becoming more conservative.
There are plenty of generations which did not become right wing as they got older. My grandparents were among that generation.
There are some people who believe this is true because it's reflected in the very specific demographics they surround themselves with. That's frustrating, but I understand how we probably all make some unthinking assumptions based on our own experiences.
But what I find really obnoxious is people who believe this because they associate being right wing with maturity, and being left wing, progressive, liberal or voting Labour with immaturity. That is absolute nonsense, very arrogant, and when it comes from politicians I believe it reflects a level of entitlement which I find pretty disgusting.
I cannot imagine believing that people who disagree with me are just inherently immature, and when they grow up, they'll come to agree with me. Delusional and hubristic, because the late 30s/early 40s generation will count in the general election, and we're very much not becoming more conservative with age. Between Brexit, housing, climate change, and the government's obsession with LGBT people, if anything, we may find ourselves getting more radical in our opposition to the government over the coming years. Or, rather, many of our general values, which may have been seen as fairly moderate in the past, are increasingly framed as "radical". Name calling everyone who disagrees with them as the lefty extremist mob may very well prompt as response along the lines of: "oh, ok, I thought I was in the centre, but if not caring where trans people go to the bathroom, thinking climate change is rather urgent, and wanting my rent to be fair is left wing, I guess the shoe fits. Better vote left then!"
Very well said. Haven't seen that premise properly unpicked before but completely agree